An AFC rivalry dominated recently by one team renews on Sunday when the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Indy to take on the Indianapolis Colts.
Pittsburgh is surprisingly 3-0 with an incredible stop unit, and my Steelers vs. Colts predictions believe their defense will reign supreme.
Read all about it in my NFL picks for September 29.
Steelers vs Colts prediction
My best betUnder 40 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysisThe Pittsburgh Steelers have yet to allow more than 10 points in a game and run an extremely balanced offense limiting any mistakes they can make. Pittsburgh has turned the ball over only once and has forced five turnovers.
Now it gets an Indianapolis Colts offense struggling to get a passing game going. Anthony Richardson has missed several easy throws to open receivers, especially rookie Adonai Mitchell — and Indy’s offense has been heavily dependent on Jonathan Taylor and Richardson in the run game.
The problem is the Colts are about to face a defense ranked second in the entire league in rushing yards allowed and yet to allow a rushing touchdown. The Steelers know how to gameplan against their opponent’s weakness on offense, and I fully expect that to continue this week against Richardson’s weaknesses in the passing game.
Pittsburgh has one of the lowest blitz rates in the NFL at just 15.2% of plays, yet it still gets after the quarterback with a 39.1% pressure rate. The Steelers rely on their stud T.J. Watt to get after the QB without needing extra defenders blitzing, and it pays off by being able to force pressure while still preventing receivers from getting open quickly.
With the Colts struggling to get going on offense in this game, you may like Pittsburgh to cover the spread. However, I’m not super comfortable with the Steelers’ offense, even against a terrible run defense on the road. Instead, I would recommend taking the Under here, as the Steelers have yet to score more than 20 points this season.
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Steelers vs Colts same-game parlay
Under 40Anthony Richarson Under 181.5 passing yardsRichardson Over 37.5 rushing yards
+425 at BetMGM
I mentioned Richardson’s struggles this season in the passing game, as he’s only averaging 194.3 passing yards per game. He just came off a game with only 167 yards and two interceptions against a strong Bears pass defense in a win.
Now he has an even tougher pass defense, and coach Shane Steichen will want to limit any possibility for turnovers and limit Richardson’s passing opportunities.
However, Richardson will be very active in the run game. He has 18 carries this season for a total of 117 yards, including eight carries last week to only 20 pass attempts.
I expect this game to have a similar type of split against the Steelers. Pittsburgh has not faced a rushing quarterback to this level yet and it allowed rookie Bo Nix to run for 25 yards on four carries.
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Steelers vs Colts odds
Steelers vs Colts live odds
Steelers vs Colts opening odds
- Spread: Pittsburgh -1.5 (-105) | Indianapolis +1.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh -120 | Indianapolis +100
- Over/Under: Over 38.5 (-110) | Under 38.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Steelers vs Colts spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread opened during the preseason with the Colts as 1.5-point favorites but re-opened this week with the Steelers as 1.5-point favorites before moving to 2.5 as of Friday afternoon.
- The Steelers have won eight of the last nine matchups straight up and covered the spread in six of those nine.
- The total opened at 44.5 preseason and re-opened at 38.5 this week before climbing up to 40 as of Friday afternoon.
- Four straight and eight of the last 10 matchups between these teams have gone Over the total.
