Sam Darnold’s dream start has helped the Minnesota Vikings get off to an unbeaten 3-0 start heading into Sunday’s NFC North showdown against the Green Bay Packers.
This will be a homecoming game for Aaron Jones, and my Vikings vs. Packers predictions expect him to show out. Find out why in my NFL picks for Sunday, September 29, below.
Vikings vs Packers prediction
My best betAaron Jones Over 82.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysisIn the build-up to this Week 4 clash, Aaron Jones has said all the right things about his love for the Green Bay fans and his years as a Packer, but make no mistake, he’ll have circled this matchup as soon as the schedule was released.
After seven seasons as a member of the Green Bay Packers, Jones and the Packers couldn’t agree on a revised deal this offseason, and he ended up signing a one-year contract with the Minnesota Vikings. Now he’s walking into a golden opportunity to remind his old team just how much he’s still got in the tank.
Jones has had an immediate impact in Minnesota, breathing life into a backfield that was largely unwatchable in 2023. Suddenly, the Vikings look potent in the ground game and Jones is coming off a monster performance last weekend, where he turned 19 carries into 102 yards to go with five receptions for 46 yards and a touchdown.
There’s every reason to expect big usage again here, and the 82.5 O/U line for Jones’ rushing + receiving yards feels low given his role in the offense.
The Packers have had mixed results against the run. They struggled to contain Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor in their first two outings of the year, and I’m not going to read too much into a better showing against the 0-3 Titans last weekend.
The threat of Justin Jefferson should prevent Green Bay from overloading the box, and I see the Vikings’ game plan skewing toward the run. Whether it’s Love or Malik Willis at the controls for the Packers, I don’t see the score getting out of hand, and Jones’ do-it-all skillset should keep him on the field regardless of the game script.
Jones has made no secret of wanting another Lambeau Leap this weekend, and I see him having plenty to celebrate on Sunday.
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Vikings vs Packers same-game parlay
Aaron Jones Over 82.5 rushing + receiving yardsVikings +2.5Under 43.5
+425 at BetMGM
Sam Darnold has passed some big tests already this year, seeing off the 49ers and Texans in back-to-back weeks, and I’m sticking with Minnesota’s continuity rather than the in-flux quarterback situation in Green Bay. This spread surely assumes that Love is playing, but even if he gets the green light to return, how sharp and how mobile will he be?
Minnesota arrives with good balance, a fierce defense, and a three-game win streak. That gives the visitors a narrow edge in my book.
The question marks around the Green Bay quarterback situation are also nudging me towards the Under for the third leg of my SGP. The Vikings have hit the Under in all three contests this season, and Brian Flores has this Minnesota defense firing on all cylinders.
The battle between Jefferson and Jaire Alexander is a must-see clash, but both teams may have to move the chains in the running game. In what feels like a classic divisional scrap, look for the defenses to have the last laugh.
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Vikings vs Packers odds
Vikings vs Packers live odds
Vikings vs Packers opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota -2 | Green Bay +2
- Moneyline: Minnesota -130 | Green Bay +110
- Over/Under: Over 39.5 | Under 39.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Vikings vs Packers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Vikings are 13-7 SU and 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games, while the Packers are 12-10 SU in their past 22 contests.
- Green Bay’s defense has seven interceptions already this season. Still, Kevin O’Connell’s play-calling will pose different challenges after the Packers faced Anthony Richardson and Will Levis in their last two games.
- The Under is 6-4 in the past 10 meetings between these teams, including Minnesota’s 24-10 victory at Lambeau Field last season.
- The Vikings have cashed in the fourth-quarter Under in 13 of their last 17 games.
