The Los Angeles Rams are a long way from La-La Land when they visit Lambeau Field and the Green Bay Packers in Week 9.
Los Angeles is making its second road start at 1 p.m. ET (10 a.m. PT) and hoping veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford will be on the field to tilt the NFL odds after suffering a thumb injury in last weekend’s loss at Dallas.
That has the Week 9 odds listing L.A. as a 3-point underdog despite Green Bay mired in a four-game slide and head coach Matt LaFleur coming under fire. The Packers started the season with three straight covers, but have since gone 0-4 ATS heading into this homestand.
I break down the point spread and Over/Under total for Sunday’s showdown and give my free NFL picks and predictions for Rams at Packers on November 5.
Rams vs Packers odds
Rams vs Packers predictions
Say what you want about Packers head coach Matt LaFleur, but whatever he’s been saying at halftime seems to be working.
Green Bay enters Week 9 as the lowest-scoring team in the first 30 minutes of action, averaging a piddly 4.1 points in the first half.
Then the Cheeseheads down some of Michael Jordan’s “Secret Stuff” at the break and come out guns blazing in the final two frames, scoring a league-best 15.9 points in the second half.
Green Bay goes from a 1H EPA per play metric ranked 29th, to a 2H EPA per play spot of No. 2 in the NFL, with a success rate of 46.4% on those second-half play calls.
Even last weekend, when the offense sputtered all game in the loss to the Vikings, Green Bay scored seven of its total 10 points in the second half.
So far in 2023, Packers games are 1-5-1 Over/Under against the first-half total while going 6-1 O/U on the second-half O/U.
The Rams have also found their footing in the final two frames of their recent outings. On the season, L.A. averages one point more in first half but has posted a count of 39 second-half points to 24 first-half tallies in the last three contests.
The Rams had one of the best 1H EPA measurements to start the season, but that’s dropped to 24th since Week 6 while the 2H average has jumped to No. 7 in that three-game span.
As for L.A.’s defense, it’s 22nd in points allowed in the second half and sits 23rd in EPA allowed per play in 2H the past three games. Green Bay, meanwhile, has given up an average of more than 10 points in the last two quarters in the past three games, with the EPA allowed sitting 31st since Week 6.
With a lower game total on the board — sinking from 41.5 to as low as 39 — there may not be many points to go around. The first-half total sits at 20 points while the early 2H total is 19.5 O/U despite the Packers’ drastic halftime splits and the Rams’ recent sound second halves.
What’s more, the extended forecast calls for rain in the morning in Green Bay, continuing into the start of this 1 p.m. ET kickoff before clearing around halftime. That means a cleaner and drier game in the final 30 minutes.
Most books will offer a prop on the highest-scoring half and you can find the price on the second half at plus money.
My best bet: Highest-scoring half: second (+105 at bet365) Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Rams vs Packers same-game parlay
Highest-scoring half: 2HJordan Love Over 12.5 rushing yardsGreen Bay ML
+475 at bet365
The Packers are the best second-half scoring team in the NFL and the Rams have found their form in the final two frames in recent outings.
Love has had to make plays with his legs and has rushed for more than 12 yards in five of seven games. His projections are all beyond this rushing total with a ceiling closer to 20 yards.
The Rams could have a backup QB in place with Matt Stafford nursing an injured thumb. Los Angeles is starting to look like a bad team.
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Rams vs Packers spread and Over/Under analysis
Despite everything that has gone on with these teams so far in 2023, the current spread is identical to the early odds for this game set back in the spring when the schedule was released.
As of Tuesday morning, the market consensus is Packers -3 with Covers Consensus showing 71% of picks taking the points with the Rams. My NFL power ratings produced an unadjusted spread of Green Bay -2.5.
The thumb injury to Matthew Stafford has him listed as day-to-day while standout rookie WR Puka Nacua is also dealing with a banged-up knee and could take it easy in practice this week, with optimism for both players in Week 9. The Rams are still playing without RB1 Kyren Williams as well.
Los Angeles surprised some with a strong start to the season, after being forecast to finish among the bottom of the NFC in 2023. Green Bay was on the other end of that perception, with plenty of sharp money coming in on the Cheeseheads offseason futures, but the Packers are struggling to live up to that opinion.
Green Bay’s biggest weakness is on offense, where QB Jordan Love continues to fall flat. The Packers are unable to sustain drives consistently, ranking 20th in success rate and averaging only 17.4 first downs per game (26th).
That’s resulted in an offense scoring just 60 total points during this four-game losing streak, despite facing some ho-hum defensive opponents. Love has been horrendous during this slump, completing just over 60% of his throws for an average of only six yards per attempt while tossing four touchdowns versus seven interceptions.
The Rams’ offense hasn’t been much better, with L.A. losing three of its last four games. Los Angeles has put forth efforts of 20, 17, and 14 points in those losses.
Stafford has struggled the last two times out, completing 53% of passes with a 2-2 TD-to-INT count, but has done so against stronger defenses like Dallas and Pittsburgh. If he’s unable to start in Week 9, Los Angeles would turn to backup Brett Rypien.
Defensively, the situation isn’t much better for either team. The Rams and Packers rank in the back third in terms of EPA allowed per play, but Green Bay is getting healthier on that side of the football and returned some key pieces in the secondary in last weekend’s loss to Minnesota.
Los Angeles was torched by the Cowboys in Week 8, failing behind quickly to eventually lose 43-20 with one of those Dallas touchdowns coming on a pick-six off Stafford. The Rams have been roughed up on the ground in recent contests and face a capable Green Bay backfield of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon — if LaFleur chooses to run the ball.
The Packers run the ball at the ninth-lowest rate in the NFL, yet sit eighth in EPA per handoff since getting Jones healthy. LaFleur called a run on just 27.42% of snaps last Sunday — tied for the second-lowest run rate in Week 8.
This Over/Under total opened around 41.5 at books on Sunday night and has since slimmed to as low as 39 points, given the questions around Stafford’s hand. Covers Consensus shows 52% of early picks on the Under.
The Rams bring a 3-5 Over/Under record into Week 9, with the Over results either coming in overtime or versus stronger offensive opponents (Dallas, San Francisco).
As for the Packers, they’re 3-4 O/U on the season after staying Under the number in three straight and four of their last five showings.
The forecast for Lambeau Field is calling for early morning rains continuing into the first half of Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff before clearing later in the afternoon. Wind gusts will hit highs of 15 mph with temperatures feeling like the low-40s.
